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WX UNIT DISCUSSION 06/11/2010 1625Z
JUST REVIEWED TODAY'S DATA ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WATCHING EMBEDDED 500MB S/W OVER MN ATTM WITH CLEARNING SKIES IN SERN MN AND WRN 2/3 OF IA. OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN WISCONSIN AS IT MOVES EWWD. SETUP LOOKING GOOD AS 500MB SPEED MAX AND WAVE OVER MN WILL STRENGHTEN SFC LOW AROUND RST/LSE BY 18Z AND FOR WARM FRONT TO LINE UP FROM SFC LOW FROM ABOUT LSE TO MKE.
WILL WATCH SPC FOR EARLY AFTN MD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 18Z AS IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDINESS IS DIMINISHING NOW WHICH WILL IMPROVE SBCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALL LOOKING ROBUST FOR A TYPICAL WISCONSIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
I'LL GO OUT ON A LIMB AND STATE THAT THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK OR AT LEAST AN UPGRADE IN THE TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ON THE MID AFTERNOON SWODY1 FROM SPC.
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WX UNIT GENERAL DISCUSSION 5/30/2010 0530Z
THE WX UNIT IS BACK IN WISCONSIN AFTER INTERCEPTING, REPORTING AND TRACKING SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS LAST WEEK AND WHAT AN INCREDIBLE LEARNING EXPERIENCE THAT HAS BEEN.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS (IF CORRECT) ARE SHOWING A GENERAL TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS AFTER THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTS UP INTO CANADA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FLOW MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN SCOPE SO I HAVE DECIDED TO GO VERY SHORT TERM WITH ANY IN DEPTH ANALYSIS ON TRENDS.
THE WEBSITE IS STILL UNDER CONSTRUCTION AS ARRANGEMENTS ARE BEING MADE TO EVENTUALLY TAKE WX UNIT INTO THE MAINSTREAM OF SEVERE WEATHER VIDEO, NEWS, AND INFORMATION AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE A BENEFIT TO THE ONGOING STUDY AND REPORTING OF SEVERE WEATHER.
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